South Africa / Politics / Elections

Highest potential for violence and fraud in an SA election since 1994
By Stef Terblanche

(Published in/on AIC Monday Briefing, The Intelligence Bulletin, Polity.org and I-Net Bridge)

       

South Africa’s first democratic elections were held without incident in 1994 despite serious turmoil and violence in the two months preceding it. Since then three more free, fair and peaceful general elections have been held without incident. But now, for the first time since 1994, electoral violence, unfair practices and election fraud threaten the integrity  of South Africa’s fifth democratic elections.

Historical context

Looking back it seems like a sheer miracle that South Africa’s first fully democratic elections were at all able to take place on April 27, 1994. In the four years leading up to the 1994 elections, some 14,000 people had died. 

But it was especially the last two months preceding those elections that were marked by all-round turmoil such as -

–   obstructive party political squabbles and stand-offs;

–   massive public demonstrations, labour strikes and marches;

–   violence and turmoil in the black “homelands” and “independent” Bantustans of Qua-Qua, Bophuthatswana, KwaZulu, Ciskei and Transkei;

–   an “invasion” of Bophuthatswana by the right-wing Afrikaner-Weerstandsbeweging;

–   spiralling violence between the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and African National Congress (ANC) in KwaZulu-Natal;

–   several car bombs exploding including one in central Johannesburg that killed 9 people and injured scores;

–   the Shell House massacre when IFP supporters marched on the ANC national headquarters in Johannesburg;

–   civil war in townships on the East Rand, and more.

For a more comprehensive reminder of this nightmare period, Wikipedia has published a day-to-list of these events .

Despite the violence  and turmoil, even the integrity of the elections could have been seriously questioned as there was no formal voters’ roll and voters merely had to present an official identity document, or in its place temporary identity papers or homeland travel documents – issued without a reliable confirmation system - to be able to vote. This of course invited gross irregularities.

Nonetheless, over a three-day voting period (the main election day being April 27) South Africans elected their first fully democratic government without any serious incident. And in the month after the April 1994 elections, deaths due to political violence fell by more than 60% , thereafter disappearing altogether.

By far the majority of South Africans accepted the outcome of the 1994 elections, as did the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and international observers. South Africa returned to peace, stability and prosperity, paving the way for the holding of further completely violence-free and fair general elections in 1999, 2004 and 2009. Several local government elections were also held in-between.

Now, on the eve of South Africa’s 5th fully democratic general election, the spectre of irregularities, abuse of state resources and political violence is back again, although nowhere near the scale of what it was before the 1994 elections.

2014 context: political violence

The spectre of potential election violence in 2014 was brought home recently when the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema went to Nkandla, the rural home of President Jacob Zuma, to deliver a home to a neighbour of Zuma. Police had to escort Malema and arrested several members of an ANC crowd that became threatening and violent.

It seemed a repeat was  on the cards when Malema and the EFF unveiled their election manifesto at an event that drew an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 supporters at Thembisa near Johannesburg .

In what appeared to be an attempt to undermine the success of the EFF launch the ANC organised, through its youth wing, a music concert less than a  kilometre away. Several high profile leaders addressed the 10,000 odd supporters, hurling a variety of arguably inflammatory insults at Malema and the EFF.

Beforehand both parties said their members were disciplined and would not instigate any violence, but most commentators in the media anticipated that violent clashes were very likely. Large numbers of police were nervously on stand-by and able to keep the peace…this time.

Not so fortunate was the Democratic Alliance (DA) when 6,000 of its members recently staged a “march for real jobs” to the ANC’s headquarters in Johannesburg where ANC supporters armed with rocks and bricks were waiting for them. A large police contingent stopped the march a block away from the ANC headquarters and were then attacked by the ANC supporters. Police fired stun grenades and arrested several ANC supporters.

“Clashes between the police and ANC supporters attempting to confront a DA protest march head-on paint a worrying picture for political tolerance less than three months before South Africa’s fifth general election,” wrote Business Day.

Many news reports and recent independent research are suggesting that ANC supporters/members are actively displaying the most intolerance and use of violence to intimidate opposition parties and disrupt their activities. In recent months ANC members/supporters on numerous occasions have openly and violently attacked gatherings, marches and other events of the DA, the EFF, and AgangSA.

Political violence has also been on the increase in KwaZulu-Natal, but this time between the IFP and its breakaway off-shoot, the National Freedom Party (NFP). A number of people from both parties have died or been injured in the past few months.

And, according to a Daily News report migrant worker hostels in the province are again a major part of the political violence, as they were in the early 1990s.

KwaZulu-Natal MEC for Community Safety and Liaison, Willies Mchunu, the NFP leader Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi, and IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi, among others, have all expressed their serious concern.

Meanwhile, in the past three months increasingly violent service delivery protests have also escalated around the country, with an estimated 32 protests taking place each day. These too have direct relevance to the current election campaigning in South Africa, as was also intimated by the Gauteng Local Government and Housing MEC, Ntombi Mekgwe, according to an SABC news report.

Undoubtedly these protests contribute  to creating a volatile and highly charged atmosphere ahead of the May 7 elections.

In townships around the country protesting residents prevented officials of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) from registering voters, chased away ANC officials, forced the closure of IEC registration facilities and/or burnt down IEC facilities. There were also warnings that people would be prevented from voting on May 7.

2014 context: free and fair elections

While political violence in the run-up to this year’s elections is already a factor, so too are a number of developments that impact directly on just how free and fair the elections will be.

Firstly there appears to be blatant abuse by the ANC of its position as government and of state resources to give it a highly unfair election advantage. The ANC has hijacked government functions and arguably turned them into party political rallies as it did, for example, at a recent event for investors in Saldanha. Opposition leaders like the DA’s Helen Zille have lodged serious protests over this trend.

In addition the SABC is being unashamedly used as an ANC mouthpiece. First it provided a live broadcast of several hours of the launch of the ANC’s election manifesto, a consideration not given to any of the other political parties. Then it started broadcasting live the business breakfasts organised by the pro-ANC, Gupta family-owned newspaper, The New Age, at which prominent ANC leaders, including President Zuma, have been the speakers.

Furthermore, advertisements of state departments have appeared regularly on SABC TV in recent months, presented in ANC colours and boasting of past government achievements in texts almost identical to clauses in the ANC’s election manifesto.

ANC leaders who do not hold any government positions have been afforded police blue-light convoys while on electioneering business. Late last year government-built RDP houses were handed out to voters in the Tlokwe by-elections by the ANC.

Of equal concern is the role of the IEC. It was accused by the DA and AgangSA  of irregularities in its management of the infamous Tlokwe by-elections late last year.

This led to AgangSA’s director of communication, Mark Peach, issuing  a statement published on Politicsweb recently in which he inter alia stated: “Events surrounding the Tlokwe 2013 by-elections where alleged impropriety by IEC electoral officers including refusal to register independent candidates to protect the ANC from competition, has raised serious questions about the independence and reliability as an agent of free and fair elections. 

“In addition the cloud hanging over the Chair of the IEC, Ms Pansy Tlakula following the findings of the Public Protector that she acted improperly in the procurement of the lease of the current IEC Head Quarters, makes her an inappropriate custodian of free and fair elections.  We need a higher level of integrity in the IEC for us to have greater confidence that the election this year will be safeguarded to ensure that it is free and fair.”

Questions that are being raised include practices involving the IEC allegedly not stamping the back of ballot papers; teachers from the ANC-aligned South African Democratic Teachers Union being use as monitors at election stations; and questions over the ballot paper printing processes, numbering the ballot papers and protecting the 5-10% excess ballot papers that will be printed, among others.

Questions are also being asked about the possible involvement in South Africa’s elections of the Israeli firm Nikuv International Projects which was paid US$13-million (R138.6-million) to allegedly manipulate voter registration, counter ‘unfavourable’ results and ‘neutralise’ opposition votes in Zimbabwe’s last elections. As it turned out some 109,000 Zimbabwean ‘voters’ were found to be aged over 100, while 2-million young voters were kept off the voters’ roll. Nikuv has managed elections in a number of other African countries including Zambia, Angola and Nigeria.

Unless firm and transparent steps are taken to address issues around possible irregularities raised by opposition parties and other observers, the outcome could yet be challenged. It is up to the IEC and the government to demonstrate their willingness to fully protect the integrity of the elections.

Dealing with the escalating violence will be more difficult. Although police have been heavily criticised for their actions that caused a number of deaths during some of the township protests, the police have actually done a commendable job considering the sheer volume of protests and the high levels of aggression and destructiveness displayed by protesters. Also, they did well to keep the DA and ANC supporters apart in Johannesburg as well as the EFF and ANC supporters in Thembisa.

But whether they have the numbers and resources to contain any rapid escalation of violence is another question. And violence of any kind before and during the elections will contaminate the outcome.

In conclusion, the onset of peaceful and fair political competition in the democratic South Africa in 1994 coincided with Nelson Mandela taking the political helm. Ironically, if this year’s elections turn out to be violent and not fair, it will coincide with Mandela’s recent final departure…and this time he will not be around to calm things down as he did in 1994.